In July 2021, the Biden administration formed surge response teams to assist states with the surge in COVID-19 cases. The aim was to track the virus’s development using data provided from the states to keep the country aware of hotspots as the Delta variant spread. In detailing surges in Missouri and Florida, it became apparent that the data regarding deaths related to COVID-19 was where the surge response teams decided to focus as a means to track trends. This case follows Jeff Zients, White House Coronavirus Coordinator, as he works to develop a predictive model to forecast the number of deaths in a given county using a cross-sectional study. Could some of the variables most related to deaths in his study give state officials an opportunity to pinpoint counties at a higher risk for the next potential surge in deaths related to COVID-19?