Business Case Studies & Business Publications

Impact Theory of Change

Kaufmann, Lauren, ...

Technical Note

Impact Theory of Change

Kaufmann, Lauren; Shaloudegi, Koushyar

E-0522 | Published July 25, 2025 | 7 Pages Technical Note

Collection: Darden School of Business

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Organizations often have an idea of how to make a positive social or environmental impact and want to understand the likelihood that launching new programs or interventions will succeed. Managers want to know what makes their organization’s programs succeed, whom those programs benefit, and how to create the conditions that result in desired outcomes. Assessing outcomes is essential but does not fully explain why or how an initiative succeeds or fails. Knowing the answers to all those questions is necessary to create and replicate social change. An impact theory of change (ToC) is a powerful tool in answering those questions. When used thoughtfully, a ToC helps managers and policymakers track and verify their intended impacts by illustrating the connections between planned activities and long-term goals while clearly explaining the rationale behind the anticipated changes. As there is substantial overlap between impact measurement and management and ToC, we recommend reading the technical note “Approaches and Resources Supporting Impact Measurement and Management” (UVA-E-0523).