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Pfeifer, Phillip E.

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A Bayesian Examines the Lady Tasting Tea

This technical note accompanies the case/class on "The Lady Tasting Tea" (LTT). It describes how a Bayesian would update his or her prior probability for the probability the LTT can correctly distingu ...

A Bayesian Examines the Lady Tasting Tea (Abridged)

This technical note accompanies the case/class on "The Lady Tasting Tea" (LTT). It describes how a Bayesian would update his or her prior probability for the probability the LTT can correctly distingu ...

A Brief Primer on Probability Distributions

This four-page technical note provides information about five probability distributions. The note describes the parametrics of each distribution, the moments of each distribution, and the important pr ...

Acquisition Cost Allocation at Progressive Insurance

Omar Parvaiz, Progressive Insurance field product manager in charge of Tennessee and South Carolina, must analyze the results of a yearlong test of a new pricing algorithm he developed. The new algori ...

Alumni Giving

Madison Kryswada, director of alumni relationships at State University, assembled a 123-school data ...

American Lawbook Corporation (A)

This case concerns a lawbook publishing company's procedures for evaluating law school textbook proposals. Several evaluation approaches are possible. Historical cost data, assessments of unit sales, ...

American Lawbook Corporation (B)

This case describes two simple regression models built by an analyst at the American Lawbook Corporation in response to the issues of the A case (QA-0257). This B case is used to facilitate the studen ...

Amore Frozen Foods (A): Macaroni and Cheese Fill Targets

Amore must set the fill-target for its eight-ounce macaroni and cheese pie. Unless five sample pies taken every 20 minutes average more than eight ounces, the entire 20-minute batch must be rejected. ...

Amore Frozen Foods (B): Macaroni and Cheese Check-Weigher

Subsequent to Tom Jenkins' setting of the fill target for Amore's 8-ounce frozen macaroni and cheese pie (see "Amore Frozen Foods (A)" UVA-QA-0317), the technology developed for an automatic check-wei ...

Assumptions Behind the Linear Regression Model

In a previous note, "Introduction to Least-Squares Modeling" (UVA-QA-0500), we have seen how least squares can be used to fit the simple linear model to historical data. The resulting model can then b ...

Berclays Capital: Corn and Ethanol Prices

A summer intern must explain to his boss the negative correlation between the prices of corn and ethanol for 2006 and the first half of 2007. The negative correlation called into question the use of t ...

Bidding For Timber

A forestry analyst must review the recent bidding history of 103 timber trees in order to prepare bids for future timber auctions. A regression analysis to predict highest competing bid and a decision ...
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