In early 2023, pension fund manager Lynda Chen was troubled. She knew how important portfolio returns were for the pension’s finances. The fund’s assets ensure the pension’s health, as portfolio returns prefund the cost of the benefits the pension pays out to members. Built into Chen’s pension calculations was a 6.5% expected return, which, relative to other pension funds, was conservative. But in this world of massive debt levels, a series of adverse supply shocks, and quantitative tightening (so soon after negative interest rates!), could she count on 6.5% returns going forward? Or did she need to further reduce the fund’s expected returns assumptions? Currently, her fund was invested in equities (in the United States, other developed markets, and emerging markets), fixed income (US government and corporate bonds), and “alternatives.” Whether or not she changed the assumed expected returns, should she consider altering the fund’s global asset allocation?
This case includes an overview of the global macroeconomic situation in 2023, with emphasis on the COVID-19 pandemic shock, national debt levels, emerging market economies, and drivers of equity and bond returns.
