In this case series, Margaret Ballis, a soon-to-be Darden School of Business graduate, is about to begin her dream job at a leading investment management firm. On her way to becoming a fund manager, she cannot help wondering about her future success. Ballis is trying to assess her ability to consistently outperform the stock market; she questions whether it is even possible to achieve persistent performance as a fund manager. Using data downloaded from Morningstar, Inc., on 2,852 mutual funds, students are prompted to investigate whether funds that beat the S&P 500 Index benchmark during a five-year period are more likely to beat the Index over the next five-year period. Students are asked to take a closer look at the “hot hand” phenomenon by investigating investors’ reactions to streaks of outperformance and examining whether funds that outperformed their peers several years in a row also outgrow their peers in terms of size.
The A case (UVA-F-1621) can be used to support an introductory class in data analysis with an emphasis on PivotTables, data filtering, and regressions. The B case (UVA-F-1622) can be used to support a more advanced financial analysis for students with some exposure to the CAPM model. There are two supplemental spreadsheets: one for students (UVA-F-1621X) and one for instructors (UVA-F-1621TNX).