Business Case Studies & Business Publications

Underdogs: Predicting Student Success at...

Linville, James, F...

Case

Underdogs: Predicting Student Success at Abaarso School in Somaliland

Linville, James; Freeman, Rupert

QA-0983 | Published December 10, 2025 | 5 Pages Case

Collection: Darden School of Business

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Learning Objectives

This case takes place in Somaliland at Abaarso School, whose mission is to identify and educate high-achieving, low-income Somalis. Ayana Mubarik leads the process of identifying and recruiting new students, for which Abaarso uses an admissions exam given to sixth and seventh graders across Somaliland. Mubarik and her team seek to analyze the extent to which the exam—or various sections of it—is able to predict student success at Abaarso. The case is accompanied by a spreadsheet containing exam scores and financial aid data for the last two classes of incoming Abaarso students, along with ranking data on their performance at the school.

• Appreciate the role that analytical tools such as linear regression can play in a small grassroots organization, even with limited data. • Interpret changing, negative, and counterintuitive regression coefficients. • Build hypotheses to explain correlations in both static and time-series data. • Interpret a range of p-values and assess the managerial value of significance levels that do not fit into a commonly held p < 0.05 threshold. • Assess the trade-offs that come with having limited or missing data, including different methods for data imputation or proceeding with the analysis while leaving some data out. • Use a regression analysis to make and defend a discrete decision regarding which student to admit to the school, given three options and only one available position.