Business Case Studies & Business Publications

Dollars, Debt, and Destiny: Marfrig’s Di...

Saffie, Felipe, Ha...

Case

Dollars, Debt, and Destiny: Marfrig’s Dilemma in a Changing Currency World

Saffie, Felipe; Harrison, Bryan

GEM-0254 | Published February 4, 2026 | 21 Pages Case

Collection: Darden School of Business

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Marfrig Global Foods (Marfrig) CFO Tang David must decide whether to anchor new short-term and long-term contracts in US dollars. For decades, the dollar had functioned as the global safe asset, but David wondered whether headwinds on the US policy front threatened the dollar's dominance. The case offers historical context about the dollar’s rise to prominence and examines the dollar’s current status in relation to US tariff policy, US fiscal stability, and firm-level outcomes. This case works well as the second piece in a two-class series that covers tariffs and the US dollar; the first case is "Tariff Trouble: Navigating a Trade War in the Global Supply Chain" (UVA-GEM-0255). With the 2025 US tariffs as a backdrop, the case covers the evolving role of the US dollar as an international safe asset. Students will not only understand why the dollar holds a preeminent role in international trade and finance, but they will learn how certain shocks can imperil the dollar's position and influence global business transactions.

1. Understand why global firms transact in US dollars and how this choice exposes them to macroeconomic risk. 2. Use the Three-Paned Model to explain how capital flows and policy uncertainty affect exchange rates. 3. Analyze fiscal sustainability using a present discounted value framework and explore how rising interest rates affect debt dynamics. 4. Contrast model predictions with observed market behavior to identify shifts in investor confidence.