Business Case Studies & Business Publications

Belief at Scale: Prediction Markets and ...

Grushka-Cockayne, ...

Case

Belief at Scale: Prediction Markets and Managerial Decision-Making

Grushka-Cockayne, Yael; Palomba, Anthony; Palley, Asa; Wang, Junnan

QA-0995 | Published July 6, 2026 | 11 Pages Case

Collection: Darden School of Business

Product Details

On the morning of Super Bowl Sunday, 2026, a media analytics strategy executive discovers that prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are putting the odds of a Seattle Seahawks win significantly higher than her team’s forecast. She must decide, quickly, whether to stick with her original model, defer to the prediction markets, or blend both. This partially fictional, public-sourced case offers a brief history of prediction markets, including changes in regulation and public perceptions. It goes through some similarities to and differences from stock exchanges, cryptocurrency-based platforms, and casinos, and it suggests implications for media strategy, behavioral economics, and information environments. At the University of Virginia Darden School of Business, it is taught in a course on decision analysis and advanced analytics, as well as courses on storytelling with data and media and entertainment.