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Warnock, Francis E.

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A Technical Note on the Open Economy IS/LM Model

This technical note introduces the basic structure of what we call the Three-Paned Model. The model is essentially just an "opening up" of the closed-economy IS/LM Model, with the main pane being the ...

A User's Guide to the BOP and IIP

This note presents a short description of the balance of payments (BOP) and international investment position (IIP) presentations. It refers to data for South Africa, but given that there are worldwid ...

Bernanke's Dilemma

At what point in the tepid recovery from the global financial crisis should the Fed take a major step in normalizing U.S. monetary policy by greatly reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds? Feder ...

Currency Crises in the United Kingdom and Hong Kong

In late December 2010, most emerging markets were struggling to contain the appreciation of their currencies, so perhaps currency crises were not likely in the foreseeable future. But conditions could ...

Draghi's Commitment

In July 2013, ECB President Mario Draghi and euro zone debt markets dominated the protagonist's thoughts. After dramatic convergence in euro zone long-term rates during the late 1990s, the "Great Conv ...

Euro Zone Convergence, Divergence...and Then What?

A hedge-fund strategist had two decisions to make. First, what was the path of core euro zone long-term interest rates likely to be over the next year? Was the dramatic decline in German long rates ov ...

Exchange Rate Models

This technical note describes parity conditions (PPP, UIP, and CIP) and develops a model of exchange rate determination. ...

FX Strategies in 2005: U.S. Dollar versus Euro

Riding the early morning Metro North train from Grand Central to Greenwich in late December 2004, the euro dominated Luke Anthony's thoughts. After bottoming out at about 0.85 $/?, in 2000 and 2001, t ...

FX Strategies in 2006: U.S. Dollar versus Yen

Riding the early morning Metro North train from Grand Central to Greenwich on April Fool's Day 2006, Luke Anthony briefly pondered the revitalization of some of the once grand Harlem neighborhoods. Bu ...

Geithner and Bernanke Amid the Global Financial Crisis

In mid-February 2009, amid the global financial crisis, the news was grim. The U.S. economy had been in recession since December 2007. If the downturn lasted into early spring, it would become America ...

Global Asset Allocation: All That Glitters?

To decide whether to initiate a position in gold, the protagonist must assess its features as a strategic component in any portfolio as well as whether the time is right for an opportunistic tactical ...

Global Asset Allocation: Crude Calculations

The protagonist's task was to decide whether her pension fund should allocate some funds to oil, and if so, how much? At this point?July 2013?there were many reasons to think about adding oil to her f ...
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