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The Yield Curve and Growth Forecasts
Warnock, Francis E. Technical Note GEM-0106 / Published March 7, 2011 / 8 pages.
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Product Overview

Fully updated through early 2016, in this case, the protagonist was sifting through the evidence on the predictive content of the yield curve. Did the current steepness of the yield curve mean that a double-dip recession was highly unlikely? Or was the fact that the yield curve had flattened over the past few years suggest a coming slowdown in economic growth? From time to time, the market focused on the slope of the yield curve. What can it tell us?

Learning Objectives

To use the tools of international macroeconomics to understand the information content or predictive power of the yield curve.

  • Overview

    Fully updated through early 2016, in this case, the protagonist was sifting through the evidence on the predictive content of the yield curve. Did the current steepness of the yield curve mean that a double-dip recession was highly unlikely? Or was the fact that the yield curve had flattened over the past few years suggest a coming slowdown in economic growth? From time to time, the market focused on the slope of the yield curve. What can it tell us?

  • Learning Objectives

    Learning Objectives

    To use the tools of international macroeconomics to understand the information content or predictive power of the yield curve.