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Johnson Family Farm - Hedging Decision
Conroy, Robert M. Case F-1641 / Published December 28, 2011 / 5 pages.
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Product Overview

Frank Johnson was contemplating his alternatives for the upcoming year. On the following day, January 12, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report was scheduled to be released. From Johnson's point of view, the biggest issue was the projected corn carryover from 2010. In November, the USDA predicted that for the first time in recent years, the projected carryover would be about 827 million bushels, which would be the lowest since 1996. The low carryover boded well for corn prices. At that time, the USDA estimated a U.S. average cash corn price for 2010-11 of $5.20. With current spot prices at about $5.83 per bushel, he expected the outlook to actually improve but was concerned about the overall price uncertainty. The uncertainties related to the use of corn in ethanol production and demand for corn from China loomed large in his thinking. He needed to consider whether he should hedge all or some part of the following year's crop.

  • Overview

    Frank Johnson was contemplating his alternatives for the upcoming year. On the following day, January 12, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report was scheduled to be released. From Johnson's point of view, the biggest issue was the projected corn carryover from 2010. In November, the USDA predicted that for the first time in recent years, the projected carryover would be about 827 million bushels, which would be the lowest since 1996. The low carryover boded well for corn prices. At that time, the USDA estimated a U.S. average cash corn price for 2010-11 of $5.20. With current spot prices at about $5.83 per bushel, he expected the outlook to actually improve but was concerned about the overall price uncertainty. The uncertainties related to the use of corn in ethanol production and demand for corn from China loomed large in his thinking. He needed to consider whether he should hedge all or some part of the following year's crop.

  • Learning Objectives